I mostly agree with your realities. I see this less as a problem of epistemology/rational belief (although it is that) and more of a psychological issue: we have an elite class so divorced from death and birth and crime (evil) and toil and war that they have embraced an absurdly naive vision of reality which doesn't even acknowledge your real constraints, or human wickedness, or TRADEOFFS. It's not JUST their disconnection, though. They are endlessly status-seeking and shallow, and status drives them toward more and more ludicrous positions (and encourgaes them to be silent when they demur). Their anxieties and social identities and reputational urges aren't real, as I wrote, but they seem to be driving a lot of public policy concerns toward inanity and craziness. I love Rob Henderson's conception of 'luxury beliefs'. It's not so much that people have come to believe these things because of their weighing of the evidence, as you or I would. Rather, there are crowds of people and entire institutions where belief is more a function of emotional impulse and virtue display and group affiliation. They ignore your realities and mine altogether. They're playing a different game. Just my suspicions here...
The powers that be seem to thrive off of encouraging people to persist in delusion. Nice article.
Well, thank you. Feel free to comment where it is less clear or could use a follow up :)
I mostly agree with your realities. I see this less as a problem of epistemology/rational belief (although it is that) and more of a psychological issue: we have an elite class so divorced from death and birth and crime (evil) and toil and war that they have embraced an absurdly naive vision of reality which doesn't even acknowledge your real constraints, or human wickedness, or TRADEOFFS. It's not JUST their disconnection, though. They are endlessly status-seeking and shallow, and status drives them toward more and more ludicrous positions (and encourgaes them to be silent when they demur). Their anxieties and social identities and reputational urges aren't real, as I wrote, but they seem to be driving a lot of public policy concerns toward inanity and craziness. I love Rob Henderson's conception of 'luxury beliefs'. It's not so much that people have come to believe these things because of their weighing of the evidence, as you or I would. Rather, there are crowds of people and entire institutions where belief is more a function of emotional impulse and virtue display and group affiliation. They ignore your realities and mine altogether. They're playing a different game. Just my suspicions here...
https://jmpolemic.substack.com/p/its-not-real